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| Oregon Employment Revisions - 2005 | ||
| 02/26/2006 | ||
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Revisions to 2005 Data Payroll employment data were recently revised by the Oregon Employment Department working in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. The annual revisions updated data for 2004 and 2005 with complete records from quarterly tax filings of most firms doing business in the state. Strong economic expansion Annual average employment growth was 50,400 between 2004 and 2005. This was a growth rate of 3.1 percent. The growth rate for the prior year was still robust at 32,300 jobs or 2.1 percent. The nonfarm payroll employment figures reflect strong economic expansion throughout 2004 and 2005 following the downturn in 2001 through mid-2003. Seasonally adjusted payroll employment hit a new record of 1,686,600 jobs in December 2005.  Job gains over a 12-month period have been close to 50,000 since mid-2004.  Most industries added jobs in the 12 months ending December The newly revised data show most industries shared in the gains of Oregon’s recent economic expansion. Seven of the 10 major industries within manufacturing added jobs in the 12-month period ending in December 2005. Transportation equipment manufacturing showed the biggest gain, growing by 1,600 jobs.  Of the 15 major non‑manufacturing industries, all but three posted job gains in that time period. Construction posted the largest gain as residential construction was booming. It added 10,000 jobs during 2005. Retail trade added 8,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality, which is comprised primarily of restaurants, added 6,200 jobs.  Magnitude of the Revisions The revisions to total nonfarm payroll employment were fairly small for both years. The 2005 annual average was revised down by 3,100 jobs or 0.2%. Generally, we consider our original estimates to have been decent if the revision is less than 0.6% in either direction. The revision to 2004 annual average data was 800 jobs or less than 0.05%. The original estimates showed us a very accurate trend for the last six months of 2005. Little overall revision was needed for these months of July through December. Looking at the revisions on a monthly basis, we see that the original estimates for the early part of 2005 were a little too aggressive. The new numbers show payroll employment revised down by between 0.3% and 0.6% for the first four months of the year. As the year progressed, the original estimates turned out to be off by lesser and lesser amounts; for the last six months of the year, the revision to the monthly data never exceeded 0.1% in either direction. Note that the above discussion excludes the affect of the newly revised government figures. Comparing the new numbers for 2005 with the original figures (which didn’t include the government revisions) shows an annual average revision to total nonfarm payroll employment of 10,500 jobs or 0.6%. Revisions for the major industries Annual average figures for 2005 were revised by more than 1,000 jobs in most of the major industries.
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